Ten European Union Member States declared various stages of a gas emergency. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), lowering the thermostat for heating by just 1 degree Celsius in European buildings would curb gas use by 10 bcm per year equivalent to half of the volumes coming from Russia to Europe through Nord Stream 1.
REPowerEU includes a goal of increasing energy savings for efficiency from 9 to 13 percent by 2030 compared to the EU’s 2020 reference scenario.
Extra LNG purchases are not easy. In 2021 Europe imported 27% of its consumption in the form of LNG while it imported 40% of its consumption from Russia, mostly by pipeline (8% of Russian imports were LNG).
The EU and Member States Leaders are actively trying to buy gas from new countries. Africa, Israël through Egypt, Azerbaijan… In conclusion, diversifying EU gas supplying countries is a good strategic move. However, it will bear fruits only on the mid-term.
The present crisis highlights the strategic importance of LNG re-gas terminals, reverse gas flows, gas storage and coordinated purchase.
2022 will be the record year (+15% to 20% in Europe, +5% worldwide) for coal usage, with many countries reopening mothballed coal plants to secure electricity supply for the winter.
Energy transition requires the electrification of the economy to get rid of fossil fuels as much as possible, thus decreasing GHG emissions and dependency on imported Russian energies.
The Renewable energy roll out needs to speed up. Europe proposes to increase its 2030 target for renewables percentage of consumed energy from 40 to 45%. It aims to enable faster PV deployment and at quadrupling the EU photovoltaic electricity production by 2030. Delivering the REPowerEU objectives requires €210 billion additional investment from 2022 to 2027.
Nuclear electricity is the carbon-free electricity that allows safe grid operation with a high percentage of renewables. Growth of nuclear is accelerating in France, Japan and China. Other countries are expanding the lifetime of reactors. There is also a move to develop small units (SMRs), with 50 designs and concepts globally, as well as four SMRs in advanced stages of construction in Argentina, China and Russia.
To meet the Paris agreement goals
How to manage energy supply in Europe without Russian fossil energies. Click to discover more in our full article.
Read more
In the short term: To address Russian gas cuts, Europeans should
Re-open the Groningen gas field
Keep operations in Belgian and German nuclear plants whose closure was scheduled
Buy as much LNG as possible considering the LNG spare spot volumes and the re-gas facilities capacity
Invest in gas pipelines to increase their fluidity
Launch major plans for energy conservation as soon as possible
and…hope that this winter will be mild!
In the mid-term: Europeans should
Invest in re-gas facilities especially in Germany
Implement a bold electricity market reform encouraging low carbon generation financing
Accelerate PV solar deployment by persuading populations to accept alleviated procedures
Be careful not to trade Russian gas dependency against China dependency on PV panels, rare metals, and batteries supply
In the long term: Europeans should
Accelerate R&D in energy technologies
Invest in nuclear plants
Create favorable financing conditions for long term green energy projects
It decarbonizes around 15% of the economy that is not suitable for the direct use of electricity.
